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Dr. Jody Baumgartner
- Title: Associate Professor, Ph.D. (Miami University, OH)
- Office: Brewster A-114
- Office Phone: (252) 328-2843
- Fax: (252) 328-4134
- Email Address: jodyb [at] jodyb.net
- Teaching Areas: American and Comparative Politics
- Research Interests: Campaigns and Elections, Party Politics, Presidential Power
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The 2012 Election Forecast by the Spring 2012 "Campaigns & Elections" (POLS 3037) Class at East Carolina University
The method is simple. Because presidential elections are decided on a per-state basis, the first thing we do is assign each student a state. Then, the student finds and records election data for that state (which party won, and by how much) for elections in the past 10-20 years (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, state legislatures). Based on trends identified in these data, as well as what others are saying, the student then makes a prediction. After each state is done the Electoral College votes won by each party are totaled to get our prediction. Try it Yourself
Result: The Winner, Barack Obama
| Party |
Total Electoral College Votes Won |
| Democrats | 289 |
| Republicans | 216 |
| To Close to Call | 33 |
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State-by-State Breakdown (with Analyses)
 Dr. Baumgartner's Web Site
Other Faculty
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