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Dr. Jody Baumgartner
- Title: Assistant Professor, Ph.D. (Miami University, OH)
- Office: Brewster A-114
- Office Phone: (252) 328-2843
- Fax: (252) 328-4134
- Email Address: jodyb [at] jodyb.net
- Teaching Areas: American and Comparative Politics
- Research Interests: Campaigns and Elections, Party Politics, Presidential Power
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 Dr. Baumgartner's Web Site
POLS 3037: Election Forecasting
In the spring of 2008, the "Campaigns and Elections in America" class (POLS 3037) predicted the presidntial election. Our method was simple. Each student picked a state and recorded election data for that state (which party won, and by how much) for elections in the past 10-20 years (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, state legislatures). Based on trends in these data, they made a prediction for which party would win in 2008.
As we all know (after the 2000 election!), presidential elections are decided on a per-state basis. So, after we did each state, we added them up to get our prediction.
RESULTS: OUR PREDICTION, Dated April 1, 2008
(does not include MS or NM)
| PARTY |
TOTAL STATES WON |
TOTAL EC VOTES |
| Democrats | 26 | 307 |
| Republicans | 23 | 220 |
| WINNER |
DEMOCRATS | |
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STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWN
Other Faculty
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