Roanoke Colonies Research Newsletter
Volume 5.2 (May 1998)

Droughts Affected Both Roanoke and Jamestown

On April 24, 1998, the journal Science published a dendrochronological study of the climatic conditions at the time of both the Roanoke colonization efforts of the
1580s and the Jamestown settlement of the early 1600s. Conducted by members of the Tree-Ring Laboratory of the University of Arkansas’ Department of Geography and of the Center for Archaeological Research at the College of William and Mary, the study indicated that major droughts occurred from 1587 to 1589—the period in which the final Roanoke colonization attempt became the “Lost Colony”—and from 1606 to 1612—the difficult first years of the Jamestown colony, a period sometimes called “The Starving Time.”

Researchers David W. Stahle, Malcolm K. Cleveland, Dennis B. Blanton, Matthew D. Therrell, and David A. Gay based their study on core samples taken from bald cypress trees on the Blackwater and Nottoway Rivers in southeastern Virginia. Some 800 years of growing conditions were determined by examining the width of growth rings. The core samples showed that from the time John White left the colonists on Roanoke Island in 1587 until the year before he was able to return to look for them in 1590, the region of the Blackwater and Nottoway Rivers had the worst drought in the 800-year period observable through the core samples (AD 1185-1984). In addition, 1606-1612, the period in which the Jamestown colony was begun, was the driest seven-year period in 770 years.

Straw-sized core samples were drawn from bald cypress trees. The tree ring widths were compared, first, to the recorded rainfall data of the National Weather Service from the past 150 years to calibrate the measurement of growth rings. Then the growth data were examined across the 800 years shown in the core samples.

Though the original emphasis was on the Jamestown colony, the study raises several important questions for researchers working on Roanoke colonization. For example, what effect did the drought conditions have on the tensions between the European settlers and the Native Americans from whom they were requesting or even demanding food? What effects did the lack of rain have on the fresh water supply available to the settlers? In addition, does the presence of severe drought lessen the viability of claims often made that the settlers planned poorly about the amounts and kinds of supplies necessary to survive?

These sorts of questions created a widespread interest in the drought study. National Public Radio’s All Things Considered did a report on its April 23 broadcast. In addition, articles appeared in major newspapers throughout the country, including the Charlotte Observer, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the New York Times, the Chicago Tribune, the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot, USA Today, US News and World Report, and the Washington Post. In addition, the story was covered by Web-only news outlets such as CNN Interactive, ABCNews.com, and MSNBC.

The news reports contain comments by the researchers not included in the Science article. “If the English had tried to find a worse time to launch their settlements in the New World, they could not have done so,’’ Blanton is quoted in the Charlotte Observer. “I am not an environmental determinist,” he continued. “Other factors clearly played a role in the demise of the Roanoke Island settlers and the hardships of those at Jamestown, but the droughts were certainly among the most serious problems both groups faced.”

Blanton is careful not to draw too many conclusions about the 1587 colony from the results of the study. “One of the things that we have to be clear about is that we can not solve the mystery of the disappearance of the last group that was left there,” Blanton also told the Observer. “We cannot speak to that. We can only say that this drought is now recognized as a significant factor in the difficulty that the Lost Colony experienced, in much the same way it [the drought] was experienced at
Jamestown.”

Stahle, Cleveland, Therrell, and Gay are all part of the Tree-Ring Laboratory at the University of Arkansas. Blanton is part of the Center for Archaeological Research
at the College of William and Mary.

Sources:

Original Study

Stahle, David W., et al. “The Lost Colony and Jamestown Droughts.” Science 280 (1998): 564-67. (Back issues of Science can be ordered for $7.00 either by phone at (202) 326-6417 or through the Science Web site <http://www.sciencemag.org/>.)

Newspaper and Radio Articles

(Many of these articles are available via the World Wide Web. Those which are not free are indicated.)

Joyce, Christopher. “Colonial Disasters.” All Things Considered. National Public Radio. 23 Apr. 1998. <http://www.npr.org/programs/atc/archives/1998/980423.atc.html>.

O’Neal, Glenn. “Study Links Early Settlers’ Difficulties to Droughts.” USA Today 24 Apr. 1998, final ed.: A3. (Available for a fee through USA Today Premium
archives <http://www.usatoday.com/>.)

Reif, Erica. “Tree-Ring Evidence Points to Drought as aCause of Colonists’ Troubles at Roanoke Island and Jamestown.” Virginian-Pilot [Norfolk] 24 Apr. 1998: A1+. (Available for a fee through NewsLibrary <http://newslibrary.infi.net/>.)

Suchetka, Diane. “Did Drought Doom Lost Colony? Settlers Encountered Other Challenges, Too.” Charlotte Observer 24 Apr. 1998: A1. (Available for a fee through NewsLibrary <http://newslibrary.infi.net/>.)

Stevens, William K. “Roanoke Colony May Have Fallen to Drought, Researchers Say.” New York Times 24 Apr. 1998, late ed.:A1+. (Available for a fee through the New York Times on the Web <http://www.nytimes.com/>. Also available for free through the Chicago Tribune as “Tree Rings Offer Clue to Mystery of Ill-Fated Roanoke Colony of 1500s” <http://www.chicago.tribune.com/news/nationworld/artic le/0,1051,SAV-9804240094,00.html>.)

Tingley, Laura. “Outlook.” U.S. News and World Report 4 May 1998: 12.

Warrick, Joby. “Tree Rings Hint at Drought As Culprit at Jamestown, ‘Lost Colony.’” Washington Post 24 Apr. 1998: A3. Rpt. “Drought Doomed ‘Lost Colony,’ Report Says.” News and Observer [Raleigh] 24 Apr. 1998, state ed.: A1+. (Available for a fee through the Washington Post online archives <http://washingtonpost.com>. Also available for free through the Philadelphia Inquirer as “New World Settlers Plagued by Severe Drought, Study Says” <http://www.phillynews.com/inquirer/98/Apr/24/national/SETT24.htm>.)

Web-Only Resources

Boyle, Alan. “Drought’s Role in a Colonial Mystery: Dry Spells Dealt Big Blows to Jamestown, ‘Lost Colony.’” MSNBC. 23 Apr. 1998 <http://www.msnbc.com/ news/160354.asp.>.

Chan, Kenneth. “Drought Killed ‘Lost Colony’?” ABCNews.Com. 23 Apr. 1998 <http://www.abcnews. com/sections/science/DailyNews/jamestown980423.html>.

“Drought Devastated Early American Settlements.” CNN Interactive. 23 Apr. 1998 <http://cnn.com/TECH/science/9804/23/colonial.bad.luck.ap/index.html>.

Shaw, Peggy. “Droughts Played Major Role In Jamestown, ‘Lost Colony’ Tragedies.” William and Mary News. 23 Apr. 1998 <http://www.wm.edu/ wmnews/042398/drought.html>.

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